The situation on the Russian ice cream market demonstrates rapid development and growth, experiencing the influence of global economic trends. Thus, according to expert analysis, in 2023, ice cream sales increased by 10.7%, and in January-June 2024, the turnover of private labels increased especially dynamically - by 43.6%.
In 2024, the best-selling items are ice cream on a stick and in a waffle cone. Half of sales in physical terms are accounted for by these formats. Family packaging options - large-volume ice cream - are also gaining popularity.
In 2023, the exact amount of market production of ice cream in Russia reached a record 524 thousand tons. From January to April in 2024, compared with the statistics of the same period a year earlier, consumption increased by 27%, amounting to 171 thousand tons.
Almost all ice cream presented in the Russian Federation is domestically produced. Imports account for 2% of consumption, which roughly corresponds to 10 thousand tons per year. At the same time, exports continue to increase. More than 276 tons were sent to China in the first half of 2024 alone, which is six times higher than last year's figures for the same period.
Ice cream production in 2023 showed some regional differences. The leading region in terms of growth was the production of the Southern Federal District with an increase of 25%. In the Volga Federal District, the growth rate was minimal - 2.3%. In 2024, the Southern Federal District continued its rapid development, increasing its own production to a record 45%. In contrast, the Far Eastern Federal District was the only one to show low statistics - 1.8%.
According to last year's study by Gradus Retail Index, in July 2023, at least 10% of the market was occupied by the independent producer's brand Svetayevo, as well as 4.4% by Filevskoye from the Iceberry group of companies. Chistaya Liniya accounted for 3.7% of the market, and Vologodsky Plombir from Iceberry accounted for 3.1%, while more than 3% of the market was accounted for by the independent producer's brand Sarafanovo and the Magnat brand from Unilever.
According to data from open sources, in the first quarter of 2024, among the top 10 players, the leader in ice cream sales was Russkoye Moloko - 47%, followed by Russkiy Kholod - 19.3%. Unilever has shown a recovery in sales after the suspension of operations last year, increasing its turnover by 17.7%, Chistaya Liniya - 15.8% and GC Renna - 10.7% also showed growth. Iceberry demonstrated an increase in retail sales by 12.7%.
In July 2023, among the various ice cream brands, the dominant marketing position was occupied by "Korovka iz Korenovka" - 16% of the market. This was due to the concentration of the Rennes manufacturer on one flagship brand.
In 2024, the demand for Korean ice cream took effect, and this contributed to a surge in sales, with a monthly estimated increase of 90% from July 2023 to July 2024.
In January-May 2024, the volume of ice cream increased from 228 thousand to 260 thousand tons, which is 14% in terms of indicators. According to calculations by the Milknews analytical center, by August of this year, production increased by 18.3% and amounted to 492.7 thousand tons, compared to the same period in 2023. At the same time, stocks at the end of August reached 45.9 thousand tons, which exceeds the intensity of volume growth last year by 7%.
In the regions of Siberia, the Far East, the Urals and the Volga region, ice cream sales in 2023 showed double-digit growth, outpacing the pace in other regions.
In the first half of 2024, more than 85% of ice cream retail sales were in traditional grocery stores. Only 15% were in stalls, pavilions and kiosks.
In November 2024, the median cost of ice cream per 1 kilogram in Russia was 742.74 rubles. Compared to the previous month, the price category increased by 12.31 rubles, or 1.69%. The average price last year was 635 rubles.
At the same time, the average cost of the producer for the same period increased by 24.4%, reaching 389,876 rubles per ton in September, which is 26.9% higher than the figures for the same month in 2023.
In May–June 2024, compared to May–June 2023, the price continues to grow rapidly for most ice cream formats. Among the leaders: ice cream in a cone – by 26%, popsicle – by 21%, and sherbet – by 18%. The cost of fruit ice increased by 3%.
The reasons for the growth are not only the increase in the cost of raw materials and cocoa beans, but also the sanctions burden on processing enterprises associated with packaging lines and materials.
Ice cream consumption is also expected to exceed the previous year's figures in 2024, as it grew by 20% between January and August. Overall, consumption in 2023 reached a record high of over 0.5 million tons or 3 kg per person.
In 2023, 35.7% of retail turnover came from ice cream in waffle cones and 33.1% from Eximo. At the same time, sales of sandwiches and briquettes grew by 20.8%, with a share of 7.1%.
According to the food delivery services Samokat and Cooper, the most popular food item in Moscow in the summer of 2024 was a waffle cone. The second place was taken by a cup, and the third place by an Eskimo.
In a 2024 study, the Dairy Marketers Club found that only 57% of ice cream consumers buy year-round, and 43% of consumers consume seasonally, i.e. only in the summer. To minimize the seasonal decline in sales in winter, it is necessary to analyze demand during this period and understand the motives for consumption.
It is expected that by the end of 2024, the volume of Russian ice cream production will continue to grow and will amount to approximately 600 thousand tons, which is 14.5% more than the total production in 2023. The reason for the sharp increase in demand is the increase in ice cream consumption this year due to abnormally warm weather throughout the country.
Thus, despite the difficult challenges, the ice cream market in Russia remains with high growth and development prospects, production dynamics and an increase in production volumes, which is confirmed by positive forecasts for the coming years.
GRADUS provides up-to-date and comprehensive OFD data, supplemented by field research, which makes it possible to conduct high-quality analysis of sales results. The GRADUS database includes more than 200 SKUs, evaluates up to 80% of all receipts in offline and online retail. Large volumes of information load are updated daily from more than 200 thousand retail outlets and guarantee the accuracy and relevance of the data.
The GRADUS Retail Index algorithm evaluates up to 80% of the market volume by key SKUs, which allows companies to promptly respond to changes in the economic situation in the market environment and adequately build their strategies. In the context of constant challenges faced by the ice cream market, such accurate data becomes an important tool for making informed decisions and maintaining competitive advantages.
