Alcohol market in the Russian Federation in 2023-2024 - analysis and forecasts

In Russia, almost 230 million decaliters of alcoholic beverages were sold in 2023, excluding beer, cider and mead. According to Rosalkogoltobakkontrol, 184.2 million decaliters of alcohol have already been sold in retail in the past 10 months of 2024.

Last year, we managed to cope with the problem of alcoholic beverages supply to the Russian Federation, thanks to the parallel import mechanism that was launched. At that time, just over 100 million decalitres of alcohol were received. In the first half of 2024, imports grew by 2% and in total exceeded 48 million decalitres, amounting to 961 thousand decalitres.

Over the past year, Russia exported strong alcohol in the amount of 9 million liters and 1.2 million liters of wine, not counting sales in duty free stores. For example, the main export deliveries of wine this year are carried out to China, Kazakhstan, Belarus, Abkhazia, Turkey, Azerbaijan, Kyrgyzstan, Latvia and other countries.

According to Rosalkogoltobakkontrol, 164.3 million decalitres of alcohol, excluding beer, beer and low-alcohol drinks, were sold at retail during the first 9 months of 2023. Strong alcohol accounted for more than half of the sales volumes - over 87 million decalitres.

According to the EGAIS system, in 2023, only 191.7 million decalitres of alcoholic beverages were produced at Russian factories. In addition, for 10 months of 2024 in Russia, at enterprises of the same industry, the production of all types of alcoholic beverages, with the exception of beer, beer drinks, cider, perry and mead, showed a decrease of 0.5% compared to the same period last year - to 151.2 million decalitres.

In the first 9 months of 2024, retail sales of still wines increased by 0.9% year-on-year and amounted to 14.9 million decalitres, the same volume of sparkling wines, but their sales increased by 11.1%. Liqueur and vodka products, that is, alcoholic beverages from 6 to 60%, amounted to 11 million decalitres, which in terms of indicators became 16.1% higher.

Cognac turnover was sold 4.2% more and corresponded to 10.2 million decalitres. Vodka sales remained almost unchanged from last year, adding only 0.6% - 56 million decalitres. During the same period, low-alcohol products showed a decrease in sales by 13.5% - 11.1 million decalitres.

Russia and India, according to July 2024 data, rank third in the world in terms of domestic alcohol sales, with just over $20 billion each.

Consumption of alcoholic beverages in 2023 in the territory of the Russian Federation amounted to slightly more than 8 liters of pure alcohol per capita per year. At the same time, in the same year, the demand for strong drinks with an alcohol content of more than 25 degrees increased - 7.2 liters per person.

According to the results for June 2024, alcohol consumption per capita amounted to 7.98 liters over 12 months.

The total amount of vodka consumption over the previous year decreased by 0.2%, amounting to 5.3 liters per person. At the same time, the volumes of cognac increased at the sales level - by 10%, up to 1 liter per person, and other alcoholic beverages with a strength of over 25 degrees - by 21.5%, also up to 1 liter per person.

In the dynamics of sales of wine products, an increase of 2.3% was also noted, amounting to an average of 5.9 liters per person. Among all alcoholic beverages, beer as the most popular drink in Russia increased by 2.6%.

In August of this year, Moscow residents consumed an average of 5.15 liters of alcoholic beverages per person, compared to 8.44 liters the previous year.

Among the top 5 best-selling whiskey brands for the period January-September 2023, there was a foreign brand - William Lawson's produced by Bacardi, which accounted for 15% of the market, and in January-September 2024, according to open sources, Johnnie Walker was added to this brand.

Last year, seven French brands led the cognac assortment: Courvoisier, Camus, Grand Breuil, Martell, Monnet, Hennessy, Prince Hubert De Polignac, with total sales accounting for 44% of the market, and in addition, the leader of Russian-made cognac is Kinovsky with a market share of 23%. Also in demand among alcoholic products was Finnish Ice vodka 11%, produced by Elbrus Spirits LLC.

According to last year's data from Gradus Retail Index, the best-selling brand in the Russian liqueur segment is Tri Starika (18%), produced by OOO Sordis, while Urozhai (8%) from the Moscow Crystal plant and Sibbitter (8%) from the ASG group accounted for 8%.

According to the Metro chain, imported brands of strong alcohol prevail over domestic ones, making up 56% of the assortment. The exception is Russian-made vodka, which makes up 85%.

In 2024, vodka accounts for 62.5 million dal out of 184.2 million dal, in terms of goods sold. This year has become a record for the progress of sparkling and grape wines: these types of drinks account for 16.3 million and 46.9 million dal. Sales of energy drinks in the first quarter of this year in monetary terms increased by 3.8% compared to the same indicator of the previous year.

Purchase:

According to information from Rosalkogoltobakkontrol, for January-April 2024, alcohol purchases increased by 4.2% compared to 2023, while products with a strength of over 9 degrees - by 4.7%.

Leader:

According to analytics for 2023 and 2024, vodka became the sales leader in Russia. According to research company IWSR, this year the market share of this type of strong alcoholic drink is 63.5%, not including beer and wine.

The average cost per 1 liter of strong alcoholic beverage in Russia for the period of 2023 was 1,743 rubles. The largest increase in 2024 was for cognac by 4.01% to 5,430 rubles, followed by growth in sales of whiskey - up to 1,528 rubles, which is 3.3% more, vodka - by 2.36% to 661 rubles, gin and brandy - up to 967 rubles and 1,205 rubles, with an increase in cost of 1.1%. Prices for tinctures showed a decrease of 2.9% to 665 rubles. In early December 2024, the average price of vodka was 744.63 rubles per 1 liter. According to Rosstat, in the last month, the price category for this type of alcohol remained almost unchanged, but since the beginning of the year, the product has risen in price by 5.93%.

From January to May of this year, residents of the country bought 5% more alcohol of all categories, except beer, beer drinks, cider, perry and mead, than in the same period of 2023. According to research by Kontur.Market, in the fall of 2024, demand for alcoholic beverages decreased by 15%, also in comparison with the same period a year earlier.

On the one hand, the Russian Federation has accumulated a record volume of alcohol reserves, which will allow it to partially slow down the growth of the price category. On the other hand, the annual increase in excise taxes, together with fluctuations in exchange rates, will lead to the fact that the price will begin to grow and will be on average 10-15% higher.

According to the forecast, starting from January 1, 2025, all brands and types of alcoholic beverages will become more expensive to sell in retail. Thus, the minimum cost of vodka will increase to 349 rubles, cognac - to 651 rubles, and brandy - to 472 rubles.

In 2023, there were about 36 thousand alcohol outlets in total. Over the previous year, 229.5 million decaliters of alcohol, excluding beer and cider, were sold in stores across Russia. In the same year, stores, restaurants and bars consumed an average of 53.3 liters of beer and beer drinks, cider, perry and mead per person.

In Russia, over 11 thousand catering establishments selling alcoholic beverages opened in 2023. The number of drinking establishments, pubs and bars increased to 9,200 establishments.

According to Yandex Maps, there are 2,228 liquor stores in St. Petersburg as of December 2024. This number exceeds the figures for the same period last year by 13%. The fastest growing chain of stores in terms of distribution of its outlets is Krasnoe i Beloe. At the moment, there are 814 sales points, while a year earlier the number was 650.

In 2023-2024, there was a significant increase in Russian production of high-strength alcohol. Potential consumers are looking for new flavors and most choose to replace the usual European and American products. The growth in the projected cost of alcoholic beverages at the beginning of 2025 is due to an increase in excise rates and the introduction of new minimum prices.

In general, despite various economic fluctuations, the alcohol market in Russia maintains its pace of development and growth, which is supported by various factors contributing to such dynamics. This is also confirmed by positive forecasts for the coming years.

GRADUS provides up-to-date OFD data, supplemented by various field studies, which allows for extremely accurate analysis of sales. In terms of numbers, the GRADUS database includes more than 200 SKUs and estimates up to 80% of all receipts in offline and online retail. The volumes of information are updated daily from more than 200 thousand retail outlets and guarantee the accuracy and relevance of the data. The GRADUS Retail Index algorithm evaluates up to 80% of the market volume for key SKUs, which allows companies to promptly respond to changes in the economic situation in the market environment and adequately build their strategies. Given the constant challenges that the alcohol market faces, such accurate data is becoming an important integral tool for making informed decisions and maintaining competitive advantages.