Cheese market in the Russian Federation in 2023-2024 - analysis and forecasts

Cheese consumption in Russia continues to show positive dynamics, driven by the growing popularity of this product among different groups of the population. According to research, in 2023, consumption volume amounted to about 1.3 million tons, which is 5% more than the previous year. The main factors influencing the growth of demand are the increasing interest in healthy eating, the diversity of cheese products on the market and the popularization of Russian brands. In 2024, cheese consumption is expected to continue to grow, especially in large cities such as Moscow and St. Petersburg. According to forecasts, consumption may increase to 1.4 million tons. Increased purchasing power in certain regions and improved product quality will also contribute to growth.

The Russian cheese market is actively developing thanks to the support of local producers. In 2023, the volume of cheese production in the Russian Federation amounted to about 850 thousand tons, which is 7% more than in 2022. The main focus is on the production of popular cheeses - mozzarella, gouda and cheddar, which occupy leading positions in sales.

Among the key regions specializing in cheese production, the Moscow region, Krasnodar region and Tatarstan stand out. These regions provide more than 50% of the total production. Manufacturers focus on improving the quality of raw materials and modernizing technologies, which contributes to the growth of the competitiveness of Russian brands.

In 2024, it is expected that the production volume will grow to 900 thousand tons due to the expansion of capacity and increased investment in the cheese industry.

Cheese imports to Russia play an important role, especially in the premium segment. In 2023, the volume of imported cheese amounted to about 450 thousand tons, which corresponds to 35% of the total market volume. The main supplier countries are Belarus, Armenia and Kazakhstan, which is due to the effect of duty-free trade agreements. However, there is a noticeable trend towards a reduction in the share of imported cheeses from non-CIS countries. This is due to the introduction of sanctions, the development of domestic production and changes in consumer preferences. In 2024, the volume of imports is expected to remain at 440-450 thousand tons, with the emphasis on the supply of specialized and exclusive cheeses.

The total volume of the Russian cheese market in 2023 was about 1.3 million tons, of which 65% were products of domestic producers. The market value increased by 8%, reaching 400 billion rubles. This growth is due to increased demand and rising prices for raw materials.

Forecasts for 2024 indicate further growth in the market volume to 1.35 million tons. This will be possible due to increased production capacity and improved logistics. At the same time, the share of Russian production may increase to 70%, which indicates a gradual replacement of imported cheeses with domestic analogues.

Among Russian cheese brands, the most popular in 2023 were brands offering quality products at an affordable price. The brands "Syrnaya Lavka", "Syrny Dom" and "Rodnye Prostory" entered the top three in terms of sales.

Imported brands maintain their positions in the premium segment, despite the limited range. For example, French and Italian cheeses are in demand among consumers with a high income. In 2024, the positions of Russian brands are expected to strengthen, which is associated with improved product quality and increased investment in marketing.

The development of the cheese market is associated with changes in consumer preferences for the type of packaging. In 2023, bulk cheese became the most popular, accounting for 55% of sales. Sliced ​​cheese ranks second - about 30%, and grated cheese - 15%.

In 2024, the popularity of packaged cheese is expected to grow, especially sliced. This is due to the increase in the share of finished products in the consumer diet and the development of chain retail, where such products occupy a significant part of the shelves.

In 2023, the average cost of cheese in Russia was 600 rubles per kilogram, which is 10% more than in 2022. The increase in price is due to the increase in the cost of raw materials, energy and logistics. Imported cheeses remain the most expensive - their cost reaches 1,000 rubles per kilogram.

Forecasts for 2024 suggest a further increase in prices by 5-7%. This is due to inflationary pressure and increased demand for premium products. However, manufacturers are trying to minimize price increases by optimizing processes and increasing production volumes.

The cheese market in the Russian Federation in 2023-2024 demonstrates steady growth in all key indicators. Increased consumption volumes, development of domestic production and popularization of Russian brands indicate positive trends. Despite the challenges associated with sanctions and rising prices, the market remains competitive and continues to adapt to new conditions.

Forecasts for 2024 are optimistic: an increase in production and consumption volumes is expected, as well as a further decrease in the share of imported products. This opens up new opportunities for Russian producers and helps strengthen their positions both in the domestic and international markets.