Chocolate is among the products whose prices are especially high. Recently, a St. Petersburg confectionery factory reported an increase in the price of the product. According to its data, over the past year, the sweetness content has increased by 15-16 percent. Against this background, manufacturers have to either reduce the cost or reduce the weight of the bars, and often look for a more effective analogue of the natural composition of chocolate. Meanwhile, experts irrigated by "RG" predicted its further rise in price.

In 2024, this market will primarily see a record increase in prices for the main components - cocoa beans, the indicator in the indicated "RG" when showing the Gradus Retail Index. Their stock market value has increased by 2.8 times, so that the raw material for chocolate has become more profitable than gold. This is due to crop failure in the main producing countries - Ghana and Côte d'Ivoire. On average, chocolate has risen in price by 11 percent in the country.

- Manufacturers are gradually raising prices because they cannot work at home, - notes Yaroslav Galkov, sous-chef of the French Bakery coffee shop-bakery chain. - Replacing ingredients with cheaper ones is not the best option, since in the previous cases the taste changes. Due to such savings, you can lose customer loyalty. And compression - reducing the size while maintaining the price - can be attributed to the most honest methods, especially if the manufacturer is trying to hide this fact.

However, in retail chains, both 85-gram bars and cocoa butter substitutes have become commonplace. Can natural chocolate eventually become an exclusively premium product, as was discovered today? According to Yaroslav Galkov, at the moment there is no such risk, but if the price increase continues, then in two years production from cocoa beans will definitely move into the luxury category, since various substitutes will mainly be used.

The problem was not only the rise in price of the product, but also the decline in its quality, said Olga Yarovikova, CEO of Amazing Cocoa LLC. The company buys aromatic cocoa beans, and the quality premium is from two to five dollars per kilogram in the country of production.

- Now the prices on the exchange continue. "To maintain quality, we increase control before delivery, negotiate with suppliers on the cost and volumes of long-term growth without reference to the market," says a representative of the industry.

The cost of the sweet product is affected not only by crop failure, but also by a number of other factors, including the volatility of the ruble, the presence of Associate Professor of the Department of Economic Theory, Leading Researcher of the Institute of International Economic Relations of the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation Dmitry Morkovkin.

- The uncertainty of estimates that take into account industry prices for imported supplies of confectionery manufacturers is growing, as a result of which the ruble cost of logistics is smoothly produced. In addition, the cost of natural chocolate on the Russian market remains below average, and this also puts pressure on prices. At the same time, customs duties, which are also calculated in foreign currency, are disclosed. Indirectly on malfunctions and increased prices of equipment, including imported ones. The cost of packaging, packing, and internal logistics in Russia is growing. The increasing costs of manufacturing companies are usually included in the price of finished products. According to our requirements, the data ensures the continuation of their trade in pricing in the chocolate and confectionery segment in 2025, the expert believes.

As for substitutes, not all manufacturers can afford it. As a rule, natural composition distinguishes author's handmade chocolate.

- In a bar of milk chocolate, which is sold in a store, the share of cocoa beans is ten percent. The rest is sugar, dry milk and other ingredients, not always contained, - explains Anastasia Gostynskaya, General Director of Kremlin Traditions LLC. - In addition, large producers buy raw materials for many years in advance, they have huge warehouses for storage with maintenance of a stable temperature. Therefore, for now they do not raise prices that much. Our share of cocoa beans of the expensive Fino de Aroma variety from Colombia is 80 percent, and we cannot replace them with anything else, otherwise we will lose quality.

Against the backdrop of the cocoa deficit, technologies for creating its substitutes are actively developing, Vitaly Panov emphasized. But the prices for analogues have almost caught up with natural raw materials, which forces manufacturers to look for new ways of optimization. International corporations are already investing in startups to create artificial cellular cocoa in laboratories. According to Yaroslav Galkov, this could be an interesting option that will reduce prices, but its taste is still anyone's guess.

- Real chocolate is primarily about pleasure, self-love, and it can only be made from real cocoa beans, - Olga Yarovikova believes. - Artificial cocoa cannot contain the energy that has been accumulated in cocoa trees over centuries of cultivation.