Tea market in Russia 2023-2024 – analysis and forecasts

By 2024, production volumes had fallen by 15%, which is lower than the previous year's level. This is due to high production costs and critical raw material constraints.

The lowest statistics were recorded in January of this year – 6874 tons, which is lower than in 2023, where production amounted to 7731 tons. In April of this year, the highest value for tea production was recorded – 11,780 tons.

In August 2024, 65,425 tons of packaged black tea were produced, which is significantly lower than the same indicator of the previous year, which amounted to 96,987 tons.

According to data for 2024, Russia is almost entirely dependent on tea imports. Supplies increased by 58%, amounting to almost 140 thousand tons. Despite the fact that small plantations are located in the Krasnodar Territory, their production covers only 2% of the needs of the country's residents. Therefore, there remains a high import dependence, since foreign brands and suppliers occupy more than 59% of the market.

The main volumes of tea come from abroad. In 2023, the largest share of imports came from India - 31%. Next comes Sri Lanka - 18%, Kenya - 17%, China - 11% and Vietnam - 6%. According to data for 2024, the leaders in tea imports to the Russian Federation are Sri Lanka and India, the share of supplies from both countries is about 60%.

The share of processed and packaged imported raw materials on the Russian market is about 93%, and only 3% is supplied already packaged. There is also a decrease in the share of imported ready-made tea due to high cost and long logistics, which is more than a month. The most active companies on the Russian market are those that have their own production in the country. It is in the premium segment that imported ready-made teas are mainly presented.

The average per capita consumption of tea in 2024 was 1.53 thousand rubles per person. The Central Federal District and the Volga Federal District have the highest consumption rates. The reasons for such statistics are due to the high population density and high demand for tea in these regions.

In 2023, Lipton, Tess and Ahmad Tea were the most popular global tea brands in the Russian Federation. In the first quarter of 2024, according to expert statistics, the best-selling tea brand in the country was Greenfield with a 26% share of sales, followed by Richard - 11% and Tess - 9%. Among domestic brands, according to marketing research from open sources for January-April 2023, the Russian tea brand "Maisky" was among the top 10 brands on the market in terms of sales in kilograms.

In 2023, according to the “Analysis of the Tea Market in Russia” from BusinesStat, tea production in the country showed a decrease of 6.2%, amounting to 138 thousand tons. At the end of this year, the market volume has already exceeded 230 thousand tons, with an increase of 13%, compared to the previous year.

According to SberMarket research, in the spring of 2024, Russians bought 39% more green tea and 38% more black tea. Pronounced trends were also observed in the increase in sales of fruit tea - 68%, buckwheat tea - 64% and black leaf tea - 47%, and the amount of pu-erh sold increased by 25%.

Analysts have recorded a trend towards portioned tea, and over the last three years, tea in bags, sachets and pyramids has been growing in popularity.

From January 1 to September 6, 2023, packaged tea was purchased 74% more than unpackaged tea - 25%. As of November of this year, the share of packaged tea is 68% of the market. According to a study by SberMarket, in the spring of 2024, loose leaf tea in Russia became more popular. Sales of green loose leaf tea increased by 92%, and black loose leaf tea - by 47%.

Russians are 3.3 times more likely to buy tea bags than they are to buy loose leaf tea. This is due to the convenience and speed of brewing portioned tea, as well as its low price.

For everyday use, tea bags are more convenient. But analyses of various studies have shown that consumers of loose leaf tea are more inclined to experiment with taste. They are ready to try new varieties and look for new combinations, which helps to increase sales from a market point of view.

In November 2024, the average price of black tea per kilogram was 1,227.85 rubles, which is 0.66% lower than the previous month. The market category of green tea cost rose by an insignificant 0.01%, reaching 1,328.73 rubles per kilogram.

The cost depends on the place of origin of the tea, collection and packaging, transportation, as well as the distributor and seller markup. According to the head of the Roschaikofe Association, Ramaz Chanturia, the price dynamics for the most common and affordable tea brands in the Russian Federation in 2024 will not exceed general inflation.

From July 2023 to July 2024, the average price of black tea increased by 8%. Moscow, St. Petersburg and Tatarstan recorded the smallest increase in cost.

According to the candidate of economic sciences Evgeniya Zhukova, the prices will mainly go up for tea items that are in mass demand - these are black tea bags. According to forecasts, prices for black tea bags in Russia may increase by 7-10% by the end of this year. The price increase for pu-erh, oolong and elite green tea varieties will not exceed 5%.

Black tea continues to hold the lead, accounting for 89% of the market, while green tea accounts for only 7%, according to a 2024 study by the analytical company ACG.

Experts believe that due to the current situation in the Russian tea market, the production volume will continue to grow by 2025 to reach 250 thousand tons. Such strong growth is due to several factors, including an increase in domestic production and expansion of the tea range, as well as import substitution. The most likely risks include exchange rate fluctuations and rising raw material prices, which may affect the final price of the product.

In general, despite various economic challenges, the tea market in Russia retains significant development and growth potential, supported by various factors that contribute to such dynamics. This is also confirmed by positive forecasts for the coming years.

GRADUS provides comprehensive OFD data, supplemented by field research, which allows for extremely accurate sales analysis. In terms of numbers, the GRADUS database includes more than 200 SKUs and estimates up to 80% of all receipts in offline and online retail. Large volumes of information load are updated daily from more than 200 thousand retail outlets and guarantee the accuracy and relevance of the data. The GRADUS Retail Index algorithm evaluates up to 80% of the market volume by key SKUs, which allows companies to promptly respond to changes in the economic situation in the market environment and adequately build their strategies. Given the constant challenges that the tea market faces, such accurate data becomes an important integral tool for making informed decisions and maintaining competitive advantages.