In 2024, the chocolate market faced serious challenges: a record rise in cocoa bean prices had a noticeable impact on the cost of products, which affected consumer demand. According to the Gradus Retail Index (GRI), which records sales of everyday goods in the largest retail chains in Russia, consumer interest in chocolate in physical terms decreased, while in monetary terms the market continued to grow.
At the end of December 2024, the ICE commodity exchange in London was shaken by a sharp jump in the price of cocoa bean futures, which soared to $12,000 per ton in a matter of days. Although the price fell to $11,850 per ton in the last days of December 2024, the European commodity market, which has existed for centuries, had never seen such record high prices for cocoa beans before. For comparison: in 2024 alone, the exchange price of cocoa beans increased by 2.8 times, while in 2020-2023, the price only doubled. Exchange traders joked that they should have bought cocoa instead of securities and gold last year. This joke was close to reality - such a jump in prices for this product as in 2024 had never happened before.
What was the reason? Cocoa production in Côte d'Ivoire and Ghana, the world's largest cocoa producers with a market share of nearly 70%, fell sharply in 2024. The spike in the cocoa exchange price was driven by a poor cocoa harvest due to tree diseases and ecosystem changes from illegal deforestation in Côte d'Ivoire, as well as a general lack of investment in agriculture in West Africa. The result was a rise in prices for chocolate and other confectionery products with high cocoa content worldwide.
Different types of chocolate vary in the amount of cocoa in their composition. The main types of chocolate include dark, bitter, milk and white. Dark chocolate has the highest percentage of cocoa in its composition (at least 70%), but it does not contain milk. Dark chocolate is close in composition to bitter chocolate, the cocoa content in it is allowed from 50%, but it also does not contain milk. Milk chocolate has a low cocoa content (from 25%), and it also necessarily includes dry milk or cream. White chocolate does not contain cocoa, but its mandatory ingredients are cocoa butter and dry milk. Therefore, it is not surprising that a significant increase in the price of cocoa beans in 2024 caused an increase in prices for chocolate and chocolate products around the world.
In Russia, chocolate has been produced for a very long time and is in demand, even despite external challenges, shocks and global economic crises. In 2023, Russia ranked fifth in the world in confectionery production and was also one of the largest confectionery exporters in the world. In turn, despite the sanctions, such world leaders in chocolate production as Nestle, Mondelez International, Mars, Ferrero still maintain their confectionery factories in Russia, and Alfred Ritter GmbH & Co. KG exports its products.
According to GRI, in 2024, chocolate sales in the largest retail chains in Russia in pieces increased by 1% compared to 2023, while the overall market in physical terms decreased by 4%, but in ruble terms increased by 12%. This trend reflects the trend of an inverse relationship between the dynamics of sales volumes in physical terms and the price of the product - the higher the price, the lower the sales volume in pieces. The increase in the average price of chocolate by 11%, more than the growth of food inflation in 2024, is directly related to the growth in the world price of cocoa beans. In Russia in 2024, prices increased by 24% for dark and dark chocolate - precisely because of the highest cocoa content in these types of delicacies. However, the demand for dark chocolate has significantly decreased - its sales in physical terms fell by 17%.
In Russia in 2024, as in the previous year, milk chocolate occupied the largest share of the chocolate market, its market share in physical units increased by a percentage point over the year to 65.1%, although in rubles it decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 61.1%. The sales volume of milk chocolate in key retail chains in 2024 amounted to more than 75 billion rubles, and consumption in kilograms exceeded 80,000 tons. The most famous brands of milk chocolate in Russia are Alpen Gold, Milka (Mondelez International), as well as "Russia - a generous soul" from the confectionery factory "Russia", "Alyonka" and Kinder from Ferrero. Alpen Gold showed positive sales dynamics against the background of a price increase of only 6%.
The leader in sales growth in the dark chocolate segment was the products of the "Magnet" private label, but the largest market share in this segment is still occupied by "United Confectioners". The top three brands of dark chocolate are Babaevsky, Rossiya – Schedraya Dusha, and Kommunarka. In ruble terms, the share of Babaevsky increased by 25%, Rossiya – Schedraya Dusha by 4%, and Kommunarka by 5%.
In Russia in 2024, as in the previous year, milk chocolate occupied the largest share of the chocolate market, its market share in physical units increased by a percentage point over the year to 65.1%, although in rubles it decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 61.1%. The sales volume of milk chocolate in key retail chains in 2024 amounted to more than 75 billion rubles, and consumption in kilograms exceeded 80,000 tons. The most famous brands of milk chocolate in Russia are Alpen Gold, Milka (Mondelez International), as well as "Russia - a generous soul" from the confectionery factory "Russia", "Alyonka" and Kinder from Ferrero. Alpen Gold showed positive sales dynamics against the background of a price increase of only 6%.
The leader in sales growth in the dark chocolate segment was the products of the "Magnet" private label, but the largest market share in this segment is still occupied by "United Confectioners". The top three brands of dark chocolate are Babaevsky, Rossiya – Schedraya Dusha, and Kommunarka. In ruble terms, the share of Babaevsky increased by 25%, Rossiya – Schedraya Dusha by 4%, and Kommunarka by 5%.
According to regional distribution, the most active buyers of milk chocolate remain residents of the Moscow Region and Moscow. At the same time, in all regions of Russia, sales of dark chocolate in physical terms showed negative dynamics. At the same time, in the Moscow Region, sales of milk chocolate increased by 1.7% in physical terms and by 7.7% in monetary terms, and in Moscow, sales of milk chocolate decreased by 2% in physical terms, but increased by 6.5% in monetary terms. Sales of dark chocolate in Moscow and the Moscow Region also showed negative dynamics in physical terms, having decreased by 14.9% and 15.9%, respectively. However, in monetary terms, sales of dark chocolate in Moscow increased by 2.2%, and in the Moscow Region - by 0.5%.
As for chocolate eggs, their sales in 2024 increased by 5% in physical terms and by 12% in monetary terms. The average price of chocolate eggs increased by 6%. The leaders in chocolate egg sales are the brands Kinder, Alpen Gold and Milka.
To summarize, the following trends in the Russian chocolate market in 2024 can be noted:
Prices and sales volumes changed in the opposite direction. This trend can be seen in all market segments. For example, sales of dark chocolate in physical terms fell by 17%, while prices for it increased by 24%.
Stably high demand for milk chocolate, which is supported by domestic and international brands well known to Russians. Milk chocolate is the most popular type of chocolate in Russia, its market share is 65.1% in physical terms and 61.1% in monetary terms.
The rise in cocoa prices has affected the decline in demand for chocolate with a high cocoa content. This is especially noticeable in the dark chocolate segment, where sales fell by 17%.
Chocolate eggs showed positive sales dynamics, increasing by 5% in physical terms and by 12% in monetary terms.
According to our estimates, chocolate sales in the Russian Federation in physical terms in 2025 will continue to grow at a slow pace, by about 1-2% per year, and the market dynamics in ruble terms will depend on price dynamics.
